Shortly after delivering perhaps the best speech of the Democratic candidates at the Iowa Jefferson Jackson Dinner, a Washington Post/ABC News Poll showed Obama leading in Iowa with 30% of the voters compared to Clinton with 26% and Edwards with 22%. Because of the margin of error, Obama and Clinton are basically tied in Iowa. In addition, Obama is tied with Hilary for Democratic women’s votes in Iowa and leads by 50% (over Clinton) as the most responsible and honest candidate. In addition, in New Hampshire, another important primary, while Clinton’s voter percentage has decreased by 7% to 36%, Obama has maintained his second place standing loosing by 14% (vs. 23% in September). However, nationally Hillary leads Obama by 23%. Thus, we must ponder, can Obama actually win the Iowa primary, as well as those necessary to win the Democratic nomination over Hillary?
As Clinton and Obama diminish their gaps as the leaders of the Democratic Party nomination, their personal attacks and criticism between one another continue. As Clinton continues to attack Obama’s resume and political experience (or lack there of, as she and others claim) Obama criticizes Clinton’s portrayal of her own experience: “my understanding is she wasn’t treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. I don’t know exactly what experience she’s claiming.” On the other hand, Clinton undermines Obama’s assertion of his foreign experience. She finds it ridiculous that Obama’s experience living abroad when he was 10 years old would help him face present foreign policy issues as President. However, others, including Senator Biden, fellow Democrat and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, believes “[Obama’s living abroad] is his strongest [foreign policy] credential.” Also, Obama has attacked Clinton “[who] was a cheerleader for NAFTA for more than a decade;” then as soon as she announced her run for Presidency, abandoned this support. Obama condemns Clinton’s “flip-flopping” (Clinton also originally voted for the War in Iraq); Obama asserts, "I realize that changing your position to suit the politics of the moment might be smart campaign tactics but isn't the kind of strong, principled leadership America needs right now.” In addition, this week, Obama condemned Clinton and Edward’s plans for mandating universal health coverage without details on pricing and enforcement. Other candidates, including those on the Republican side, have continued their criticisms. Romney points out that if Obama is President, Obama will leave Iraq and the country will become a “safe-haven” for Al-Qaeda. On an interesting note, the chief Republican Presidential candidate Giuliani ironically, praised Obama for his honesty when telling New Hampshire students that he used drugs in high school. Lastly, Novak’s claim that Clinton’s campaign possessed “scandalous information” about Obama was denied by her administration.
This week Obama proposed many great plans to be implemented if he becomes President. Obama announced that he will improve community colleges, as well as make these schools free for the majority of Americans through an American Opportunity Tax Credit. Obama desires to make other colleges more attainable to Americans by facilitating the application process and increasing the amount giving for financial aid. In addition, Obama proposed a $18 billion education plan to fix Bush’s “No Child Left Behind,” through supporting universal pre-K programs and increasing teacher mentoring programs for example. Obama criticized Senators Clinton and Edwards for not allotting enough funds to the No Child Left Behind Act and not sufficiently protecting or helping students. Professors at Berkeley, Stanford, and Nobel Laureates for Economics have praised Obama’s education plan. Lastly, Obama criticized Bush for claiming that Musharraf “hasn’t crossed the line” and “truly believes in democracy.” Obama believes that a portion of our aid to Pakistan should only be given if Musharraf holds free and just elections and abandons his country’s “state of emergency”. In addition, Obama blames Cheney (ironically his relative) for America’s oil problems.
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In addition to garnering popularity amongst youth voters, hasn't he also gained the pledged monetary and campaigning support of the meida icon, Oprah Winfrey? Although he seemed rather hesitant to officially announce their ties, Oprah could prove to be of great, or little, significance. Having portrayed herself as the nonpartisan entertainer, her now politicized stance could either help Obama's popularity among women, or prove of little help to his bid and hurt the Winfrey empire by alienating some of her audience.
The question on the effect of the Obama "surge" relies heavily on whether he continues to grow in support and Clinton continues to fall over the next few weeks. Every candidate wants such a surge, but if you peak too early, you run the risk of giving your opponent time to counter your move and beat back your offensive. Obama's campaign says that the reason he is climbing in the polls is because people are only now starting to really pay attention to the primaries, and that previously polls were just whims. Maybe so, maybe not, but even so, it's Mike Huckabee who seems to be getting most of the press attention for his surge--not Obama. Does this help Obama because then he can stay under the radar and avoid peaking too early?
Paige's point is a good one. If Oprah can convince a few thousand people in Iowa who don't normally caucus to go ahead and participate in Iowa, that could be enough to turn a close race toward Obama. We've never had a celebrity endorsement in U.S. history quite like we see here in Oprah. Check out this On the Media story: http://www.onthemedia.org/episodes/2007/09/07/segments/85214
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