Obama Campaigning for April and May Primaries

Speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi commented that at the Democratic Convention she hopes the super delegates will give their to which ever candidate has the most delegates because “It's a delegate race and overturn[ing] what's happened in the elections, would be harmful to the Democratic party.” Her comment may be interpreted as beneficial for Obama as he leads with 142 delegates ahead of Hillary. As for the debate on which Michigan and Florida, it seems an absentee revote will not happen meaning the remaining options are a full-fledged primary election or splinting the state’s delegates evenly between the two candidates. The second options seems inconsequential because it will keep the same proportion of Obama’s lead and does not reflect how Florida residents did vote or would have voted if both candidates had been on the ballot. Obama has been trying to avoid the conflation of the reverend at the Chicago South Side Church, which he attends religiously, controversial quotes with his own beliefs. Obama asserted, “This is a church I have been a member of for 20 years. What I have been hearing and had been hearing in church was talk about Jesus and talk about faith and values and serving the poor.'' Obama is now trying to frame Reverend Jeremiah Wright as someone "who is like an uncle or family member who you may strongly object to what they have to say'' to give himself leeway and be excused from association with comments such as “government lied about inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color.” Obama spent Saturday campaigning in Indiana, which has its primary May 6 with 72 delegates to distribute. Interestingly, because of its late date the primary in Indiana has not really made a difference in recent history, but with this unusual campaign and both candidates’ desperation—any delegates are commodities. Obama spoke at a high school and discussed what he thinks are the three most important a decrease in the cost of healthcare, diminished dependence on foreign oil and withdrawing from Iraq.

A Mix of Uncertainty and Hope

As Obama pulled off a great victory in Vermont’s primary (59% vs. 39%), the same night he lost in Rhode Island, Ohio (44% to 54%), and the Texas primary to Democratic rival Hillary Clitnon. Now that Clinton is back in the race, Obama must continue campaigning fiercely to secure the nomination. In addition, while it is uncertain whether Obama or Clinton will receive the Democratic nomination, it is highly probable that Obama will be part of the executive branch in 2009 (either as President or Vice President). This week Clinton has hinted on her desire to appoint Obama as vice president, if she receives the nomination. I believe that Obama would surely accept this position. First, it would be a horrible political move for Obama to not accept Clinton’s offer if she wins the nomination. In addition, this experience as Vice President will help secure a future as President.


Furthermore, after Obama’s disappointing results, Obama assumed a harsher tone. In addition, he began attacking Clinton again, a sharp contrast to their recent debates. For example, Obama asserted, “"One of the things, you know, I hope people start asking is what exactly is this foreign experience that she's claiming." " I have not seen any evidence that she is better equipped to handle a crisis." As the next primaries occur, it will be interesting to watch their relationship. While Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls (46% to 37%), Obama resumed his momentum by winning in Wyoming this weekend.


However, while Obama has 1,567 delegates and Clinton has 1,462, it is impossible for either candidate to receive the nomination before the Democratic Convention. For example, Obama needs 658 delegates in order to receive the necessary 2,025 delegates and become the nominee. However, there are only 600 delegates remaining (this includes Puerto Rico’s caucuses on June 7th). On the other hand, if the Democratic party decides to count the Democratic votes in Michigan and Florida, an individual suggests (with hypothetical delegates in the future primaries/caucuses) that Obama could receive the nomination by May 20th.

Obama Ready to Make History in Ohio and Texas

With an eleven state winning streak, Obama exudes confidence heading into Tuesday’s primaries that will determine whether he is selected as the clear winner of the Democratic nomination or signify the continuation of the battle between he and Senator Clinton. While Hillary Clinton originally had large leads in both states, the national interest in the race and Obama’s momentum has diminished her advantage and polls conducted in Texas show Obama with a 47% to 43% lead. Popular with Hispanic voters, Clinton seems to have lost some ground of women to Obama. On the other hand in Ohio, the most recent polls demonstrate a 1% lead by Hillary with 47% and 46%.
The intensity of the Democratic race is reflected in the ads that have come out in Texas with one clearly favoring Clinton and a response by the Obama campaign within hours. Once again attacking his inexperience and asserting that Obama would be incapable of making difficult decisions, and the Obama campaign claimed it was using a tactic to play up the constituent’s fears . He cleverly countered, “the question is, what kind of judgment will you exercise when you pick up that phone? In fact, we have had a red phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer.” As part of Clinton’s last attempts to thwart Obama’s getting the Democratic Nomination is to attack his conspicuous absence on the Senate’s controversial vote over “Iran and missing in action as chairman of a subcommittee responsible for NATO policy in Afghanistan.” Although voters "think that Mrs. Clinton is a stronger leader and would be a stronger commander in chief…[they would] prefer Mr. Obama as president.” On a roll, Obama currently has 1369 delegates to Clinton’s 1267 and has spent this crucial week campaigning in Texas. He gave a speech in San Marcos, Texas and addressed one of the most recent criticism about his very liberal voting record and how it will be difficult to initiate bipartisanship by commenting “I don't see people at my rallies looking through rose-coloured glasses, we know how hard it will be.”
During Tuesday’s debate, Obama claimed he might use opting out as a bargaining technique “to reopen trade talks" with Mexico and Canada about NAFTA. Following this comment, a rumor asserted that the “senator’s campaign privately assured the Canadian government the candidate was not serious in his criticisms of NAFTA.” The Obama campaign claimed to have no ties to the rumor and that is probably true because it would be a little early to assuage the Canadian’ government’s fears of changing NAFTA—even if he is most likely going to be the next President—because I doubt that our northern neighbor will serve as one of the key constituents in the upcoming general election. If Obama can pull out two big wins this week, he will clench the Democratic Nomination making history as both an underdog and the first African American ever nominated by a major party to be the President of the United States.

A Little Controversy, A lot of States

As the race for the presidency continues, the spotlight has turned on Obama for many reasons. First, Clinton claimed Obama plagiarized in a speech this week in Wisconsin. Her campaign states that Obama used lines and expressed ideas from a speech that Governor Patrick gave. Obama told the American people that he should have given credit to Patrick; however, at the same time he asserted that Patrick and he share many of the same beliefs on the issues and their linguistic methods to communicate them. Governor Patrick, a supporter and friend of Obama responded, “Senator Obama and I are longtime friends and allies. We often share ideas about politics, policy, and language. The argument in question, on the value of words in the public square, is one about which he and I have spoken frequently before. Given the recent attacks from Senator Clinton, I applaud him responding in just the way he did."

Moreover, this week Obama visited Edwards, who has yet endorsed a candidate, in North Carolina. Perhaps Obama was worried about the ensuing primaries. However, this week Obama continued his upward momentum to the nomination. With a landslide win in Hawaii, and a win in Wisconsin, Obama has won ten consecutive primaries. However, Hillary Clinton is not giving up the fight. The two are eagerly campaigning for the delegate rich states of Texas and Ohio.

For example, before this past week, a poll stated that Obama would lead in the Texas Democratic primary (48% to 42%). However, another poll had the individuals almost tied, due to a margin of error. Therefore, this week Obama visited Texas and continued campaigning. In Houston, Obama spoke to a crowd of 19,000 individuals, asking the important state to help him receive the Democratic nomination. In addition, Obama may win Texas because of the characteristics of his voters and the complicated Texas primary. In the Texas primary, the state’s 126 delegates are distributing to its 31 state districts through a formula that depends on the number of Democratic voters in the elections of 2004 and 2006. Each of the districts will receive between two and eight delegates. The reason why Obama may be favored to win this state is because the formula for this primary has given more delegates to urban areas. These urban areas consist of many black voters and young individuals who are more likely to support Obama. Clinton, who personally has campaigned for the Hispanic vote in Texas, while leaving the other areas so far to Bill, is hurt because the poorer Hispanic areas that she will likely win have received fewer delegates. In Ohio, another important state (because of a large number of delegates) for Obama and Clinton, Obama began his campaign in this state, using a “populist economic message” to appeal to the state’s working class individuals. As we anxiously wait for Ohio and Texas, a recent national Democratic poll that has shown Obama has passed Clinton in voter’s support, may shine light on future successes and the nomination.

Obama in Wisconsin

For the upcoming primary in Wisconsin, Obama has held several rallies and has spent a significant amout of time getting to know the people in the state. During his Wisconsin campaign, he received a bracelet from the mother of a soldier, who died in Iraq, and the grieving mother conveyed the message that she wants to have a "Democratic presidential candidate to keep others from dying." Also in Wisconsin, the clear Republican front-runner, has stimulated press attention on his opinion to restricting the general election's campaign to public financing. Usually disregarded by the major candidates, the public financing route caps the candidate's spending at much less than he or she could raise privately. Recently, McCain has been pushing for Obama--who he presumes will become the Democratic Nomination--to also use public financing. This political pressure probably stems from McCain's need to make a decision of how he plans to finance his run in the general election. Cautious not to agree to use public financing without signed documents from the democratic candidate, he knows how much the public financing would hinder his spending and publicity if his opposition went through private donors. Keeping his cool, Obama commented, "I’m not the nominee yet;” a politically savvy move because he keeps his fiscal options open and does not look presumptuous after his post-Super Tuesday wins. Senator Clinton invited Senator Obama to a debate in Wisconsin, he declined the offer--probably in part to deny his opposition a chance to display one of her greatest strengths. His staff have framed his rejection as just another debate--after all there have been 18 and more are being planned; however, Clinton latched on to this and has invested in a new TV commercial that highlights his decline as well as his healthcare policy and a 2005 vote that allegedly favored the interest of big oil. In response, Obama's campaign staff released a new ad as well as counter-attack on Hillary's minimal time-commitment in Wisconsin arguing that, “the fact is he’s the one here in the state having a one-sided debate”. Moreover, yesterday the Service Employees International Union endorsed Obama; something that could prove beneficial since it is one of the larger unions with null members and makes up for other big union's support of Hillary Clinton. Earlier this week, his major victories in Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. helped to boost his delegate count over Hillary Clinton's by 49 votes. Helped by the significant African-American communities in all three states, Obama simply commented "It is about whether we are looking backwards or whether we are marching forward. And when I am the Democratic nominee for president, that will be the choice we have in November."

A Hopeful yet Uncertain Horizon

        Just two days before the Super Tuesday California primary, Obama received another significant endorsement. Maria Shriver, governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s wife gave her support asserting, “I thought, if Barack Obama was a state, he’d be California” “[Obama, like California, is] diverse, open, smart, independent, [and] bucks tradition. [he’s] Innovative. Inspirational. [a] Dreamer. [a]Leader.” [..]  Unfortunately, this endorsement did not have a great enough influence on the California primary. Obama came in second place (10% less votes than Hillary). However, because California does not posses a “winner-take-all” primary, Obama was able to add 160 delegates to his total number of delegates. Speaking of delegates, Obama added many more delegates on Super Tuesday after winning: Georgia, Illinois, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Utah, and Missouri. Although Obama won more states than Clinton did on Super Tuesday, Clinton received more delegates because she won in more delegate “rich” states. After a successful Super Tuesday, Obama raised $5.8 million dollars on his website. The next day at 9:30 am, Obama increased this number to $7.1 million dollars. This great amount of money that Obama raised will significantly help him maintain his strong momentum, especially because Clinton lent $5 million dollars of her own money to support her campaign’s efforts.

Moreover, this week Obama won the states of Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington by a large percentage (22% margin in LA, 36% in NE, and 37% in WA). Governor Christine Gregoire’s (Washington) endorsement of Obama a few days before the caucus may have influenced her state’s Democratic results. After these great wins, Obama now stands with 1,121 delegates, only 27 delegates behind Clinton). Ultimately, it is still very uncertain whether Clinton or Obama will receive the nomination, as Obama quickly catches up to Hilary. Now both Obama and Clinton are focusing there efforts on distinguishing themselves from McCain, the Republican frontrunner. In fact, Obama is favored over Clinton (although within a small margin of error) to beat McCain in the presidential race, according to a recent poll. Thus, in order to widen this hypothetical lead, Obama has implemented a offensive strategy, which includes focusing on the fact that McCain and Clinton both supported the Iraq War.

 

 

Obama Organizes for Super Duper Tuesday

With Super Duper Tuesday just a few days away, Senator Obama has been trying to squeeze in all the appearances he can this week, especially appealing to the states like Idaho, Minnesota, and Kansas where he has a good chance to collect delegate votes. In the first Democratic Debate with just he and Senator Clinton, the two seemed to have reconciled since the South Carolina debacle; preferring to boost both of their images, and that of the Democratic party—something that will be beneficial to the nominee in the general election—by attacking the incumbent Republicans. Obama visited Idaho, because despite the red state reputation, the current Illinois senator has a good chance of winning the states’ delegates for the Democratic National Convention. In addition to an assortment of endorsements from entertainment icons to reputable political families, now Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Bobby Kennedy, has endorsed Obama because he “is so like Bobby, who struggled for the rights of the poor in the Mississippi Delta and Appalachia, travelled to California to stand in solidarity with Cesar Chavez and farm workers, and fought to end another war that cost so many lives.” Senator Obama also held a well-attended rally in Minnesota and opened his speech in Kansas with, “We're among friends here. We're family." The introductory statements alluded to his familial connections to the state since his mother was born in El Dorado, Kansas. The Kansas events were so successful that people have begun to speculate if Obama wins the Democratic Nomination, the party might be able to turn an unwavering Republican state since 1968. Moreover, the recently released from the 4th quarter demonstrate that Hillary Clinton collected more money from the top Wall Street executives than either Romney or Obama. While Clinton accumulated $388,391 from donors, Obama trailed in third with $ 251,860. According to the New York Times, Obama commissioned commercials in 21 out of the22 states holding primaries this coming Tuesday and through these geography-specific ads attempted to “tailor his message to the concerns of the voters.”
Furthermore, the most recent poll conducted in California, a largely democratic state with the most delegates at stake, showed Obama two percent behind Clinton’s 36%, but that number does not the likely statistical error of 4-5%. With such close numbers in major states like California, this Tuesday's set of primaries will have a large impact on who is selected to represent the Democratic party in this year's general election.