A Little Controversy, A lot of States

As the race for the presidency continues, the spotlight has turned on Obama for many reasons. First, Clinton claimed Obama plagiarized in a speech this week in Wisconsin. Her campaign states that Obama used lines and expressed ideas from a speech that Governor Patrick gave. Obama told the American people that he should have given credit to Patrick; however, at the same time he asserted that Patrick and he share many of the same beliefs on the issues and their linguistic methods to communicate them. Governor Patrick, a supporter and friend of Obama responded, “Senator Obama and I are longtime friends and allies. We often share ideas about politics, policy, and language. The argument in question, on the value of words in the public square, is one about which he and I have spoken frequently before. Given the recent attacks from Senator Clinton, I applaud him responding in just the way he did."

Moreover, this week Obama visited Edwards, who has yet endorsed a candidate, in North Carolina. Perhaps Obama was worried about the ensuing primaries. However, this week Obama continued his upward momentum to the nomination. With a landslide win in Hawaii, and a win in Wisconsin, Obama has won ten consecutive primaries. However, Hillary Clinton is not giving up the fight. The two are eagerly campaigning for the delegate rich states of Texas and Ohio.

For example, before this past week, a poll stated that Obama would lead in the Texas Democratic primary (48% to 42%). However, another poll had the individuals almost tied, due to a margin of error. Therefore, this week Obama visited Texas and continued campaigning. In Houston, Obama spoke to a crowd of 19,000 individuals, asking the important state to help him receive the Democratic nomination. In addition, Obama may win Texas because of the characteristics of his voters and the complicated Texas primary. In the Texas primary, the state’s 126 delegates are distributing to its 31 state districts through a formula that depends on the number of Democratic voters in the elections of 2004 and 2006. Each of the districts will receive between two and eight delegates. The reason why Obama may be favored to win this state is because the formula for this primary has given more delegates to urban areas. These urban areas consist of many black voters and young individuals who are more likely to support Obama. Clinton, who personally has campaigned for the Hispanic vote in Texas, while leaving the other areas so far to Bill, is hurt because the poorer Hispanic areas that she will likely win have received fewer delegates. In Ohio, another important state (because of a large number of delegates) for Obama and Clinton, Obama began his campaign in this state, using a “populist economic message” to appeal to the state’s working class individuals. As we anxiously wait for Ohio and Texas, a recent national Democratic poll that has shown Obama has passed Clinton in voter’s support, may shine light on future successes and the nomination.

Obama in Wisconsin

For the upcoming primary in Wisconsin, Obama has held several rallies and has spent a significant amout of time getting to know the people in the state. During his Wisconsin campaign, he received a bracelet from the mother of a soldier, who died in Iraq, and the grieving mother conveyed the message that she wants to have a "Democratic presidential candidate to keep others from dying." Also in Wisconsin, the clear Republican front-runner, has stimulated press attention on his opinion to restricting the general election's campaign to public financing. Usually disregarded by the major candidates, the public financing route caps the candidate's spending at much less than he or she could raise privately. Recently, McCain has been pushing for Obama--who he presumes will become the Democratic Nomination--to also use public financing. This political pressure probably stems from McCain's need to make a decision of how he plans to finance his run in the general election. Cautious not to agree to use public financing without signed documents from the democratic candidate, he knows how much the public financing would hinder his spending and publicity if his opposition went through private donors. Keeping his cool, Obama commented, "I’m not the nominee yet;” a politically savvy move because he keeps his fiscal options open and does not look presumptuous after his post-Super Tuesday wins. Senator Clinton invited Senator Obama to a debate in Wisconsin, he declined the offer--probably in part to deny his opposition a chance to display one of her greatest strengths. His staff have framed his rejection as just another debate--after all there have been 18 and more are being planned; however, Clinton latched on to this and has invested in a new TV commercial that highlights his decline as well as his healthcare policy and a 2005 vote that allegedly favored the interest of big oil. In response, Obama's campaign staff released a new ad as well as counter-attack on Hillary's minimal time-commitment in Wisconsin arguing that, “the fact is he’s the one here in the state having a one-sided debate”. Moreover, yesterday the Service Employees International Union endorsed Obama; something that could prove beneficial since it is one of the larger unions with null members and makes up for other big union's support of Hillary Clinton. Earlier this week, his major victories in Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. helped to boost his delegate count over Hillary Clinton's by 49 votes. Helped by the significant African-American communities in all three states, Obama simply commented "It is about whether we are looking backwards or whether we are marching forward. And when I am the Democratic nominee for president, that will be the choice we have in November."

A Hopeful yet Uncertain Horizon

        Just two days before the Super Tuesday California primary, Obama received another significant endorsement. Maria Shriver, governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s wife gave her support asserting, “I thought, if Barack Obama was a state, he’d be California” “[Obama, like California, is] diverse, open, smart, independent, [and] bucks tradition. [he’s] Innovative. Inspirational. [a] Dreamer. [a]Leader.” [..]  Unfortunately, this endorsement did not have a great enough influence on the California primary. Obama came in second place (10% less votes than Hillary). However, because California does not posses a “winner-take-all” primary, Obama was able to add 160 delegates to his total number of delegates. Speaking of delegates, Obama added many more delegates on Super Tuesday after winning: Georgia, Illinois, Alabama, Delaware, Kansas, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Utah, and Missouri. Although Obama won more states than Clinton did on Super Tuesday, Clinton received more delegates because she won in more delegate “rich” states. After a successful Super Tuesday, Obama raised $5.8 million dollars on his website. The next day at 9:30 am, Obama increased this number to $7.1 million dollars. This great amount of money that Obama raised will significantly help him maintain his strong momentum, especially because Clinton lent $5 million dollars of her own money to support her campaign’s efforts.

Moreover, this week Obama won the states of Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington by a large percentage (22% margin in LA, 36% in NE, and 37% in WA). Governor Christine Gregoire’s (Washington) endorsement of Obama a few days before the caucus may have influenced her state’s Democratic results. After these great wins, Obama now stands with 1,121 delegates, only 27 delegates behind Clinton). Ultimately, it is still very uncertain whether Clinton or Obama will receive the nomination, as Obama quickly catches up to Hilary. Now both Obama and Clinton are focusing there efforts on distinguishing themselves from McCain, the Republican frontrunner. In fact, Obama is favored over Clinton (although within a small margin of error) to beat McCain in the presidential race, according to a recent poll. Thus, in order to widen this hypothetical lead, Obama has implemented a offensive strategy, which includes focusing on the fact that McCain and Clinton both supported the Iraq War.

 

 

Obama Organizes for Super Duper Tuesday

With Super Duper Tuesday just a few days away, Senator Obama has been trying to squeeze in all the appearances he can this week, especially appealing to the states like Idaho, Minnesota, and Kansas where he has a good chance to collect delegate votes. In the first Democratic Debate with just he and Senator Clinton, the two seemed to have reconciled since the South Carolina debacle; preferring to boost both of their images, and that of the Democratic party—something that will be beneficial to the nominee in the general election—by attacking the incumbent Republicans. Obama visited Idaho, because despite the red state reputation, the current Illinois senator has a good chance of winning the states’ delegates for the Democratic National Convention. In addition to an assortment of endorsements from entertainment icons to reputable political families, now Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Bobby Kennedy, has endorsed Obama because he “is so like Bobby, who struggled for the rights of the poor in the Mississippi Delta and Appalachia, travelled to California to stand in solidarity with Cesar Chavez and farm workers, and fought to end another war that cost so many lives.” Senator Obama also held a well-attended rally in Minnesota and opened his speech in Kansas with, “We're among friends here. We're family." The introductory statements alluded to his familial connections to the state since his mother was born in El Dorado, Kansas. The Kansas events were so successful that people have begun to speculate if Obama wins the Democratic Nomination, the party might be able to turn an unwavering Republican state since 1968. Moreover, the recently released from the 4th quarter demonstrate that Hillary Clinton collected more money from the top Wall Street executives than either Romney or Obama. While Clinton accumulated $388,391 from donors, Obama trailed in third with $ 251,860. According to the New York Times, Obama commissioned commercials in 21 out of the22 states holding primaries this coming Tuesday and through these geography-specific ads attempted to “tailor his message to the concerns of the voters.”
Furthermore, the most recent poll conducted in California, a largely democratic state with the most delegates at stake, showed Obama two percent behind Clinton’s 36%, but that number does not the likely statistical error of 4-5%. With such close numbers in major states like California, this Tuesday's set of primaries will have a large impact on who is selected to represent the Democratic party in this year's general election.

Somewhat Smooth Sailings Ahead

This past week before the South Carolina primary, tensions began heating up between Obama’s campaign and Clinton’s. Obama has recently received immense criticism and attacks from Bill Clinton. Then in a Democratic debate on Monday, the heat greatly rose. Obama and Clinton tried to silence the other’s talking, by attempting to speak louder than the other candidate; in addition, the candidates each pointed out past statements and records to make eachother look bad. Clinton alluded to Obama’s connections with “Rezko, in his slum landlord business”. That night Obama claimed, “ there was a set of assertions made by Senator Clinton as well as her husband that are not factually accurate;" "I think that part of what people are looking right now is someone who is going to solve problems and not resort to the same typical politics that we've seen in Washington."


Furthermore, over this past week instead of focusing nationally such as Clinton did, Obama campaigned immensely in South Carolina, which probably helped him secure his win at the primary. As Obama talked to many Democrats in the state, he emphasized the economy, rather than his usual call for change. In addition, The State, South Carolina’s largest newspaper endorsed Obama, an important endorsement right before the South Carolina primary. However, prior to the South Carolina Democratic primary, Obama sent out a Christian based mail to South Carolinian Democrats. This mail sheds light on Obama as a “committed Christian,” who is “guided by the Christian faith.” This flyer could have potentially alienated some Democratic voters; however, ultimately Obama still won the Democratic South Carolina. In fact, he won the primary with 55% of the vote, beating Clinton by 28%! Moreover, this week Obama has been catching up to Hillary Clinton nationally. After Obama’s win in South Carolina and his significant endorsements by the Chicago Tribune, the Philadelphia Inquire, and members of the Kennedy family (Caroline and tomorrow Ted), Obama has great potential for the primaries ahead and in winning the Democratic nomination.

Obama Takes Second in Nevada

In the Nevada Caucus, Senator Obama received support from 45% of the caucus-goers, while his main rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, had support from 51% of Nevadans. Leading up to the second place finish for Obama, was a controversy involving a union’s endorsement of the Illinois Senator and Past-President Bill Clinton’s claim of inequity in giving a certain group of voters easier access to a caucus. Ironically, after the caucus, it turned out those very people caucusing in Casinos that spurred the disagreement actually backed Hillary. Early last week, a poll that came out showing Obama's continuing efforts to minimize the gap of Senator Clinton’s lead. The Washington Post-ABC News poll had Hillary with 42% of voters and Obama with 37%-interestingly, the website also included the change in approval ratings for the candidates since December. It demonstrated that while Hillary has lost 11%, Obama has gained 14% showing how close the race for the Democratic Nomination has become. Earlier in the week, Obama attacked his opponents for not “hav[ing] anything positive to say about their own record. All they're trying to do is run me down," referencing Clinton’s recent scrutiny of his stances on the Iraq War, race and abortion. During a Las Vegas Debate, Hillary and Obama jointly decided to table the discussion of race. Hillary commented that, “we are all family here in the Democratic Party” and Obama included sometimes “our supporters, our staff, get overzealous. They start saying things that I would not say.” Moreover, informal interviews conducted in Charleston, South Carolina, demonstrate a divided African American constituency —especially women, who are expected to make up nearly 1/3 of the voters in next week’s anticipated primary. Surprisingly, some of the women interviewed expressed opinions opposite of New Hampshire’s positive response to Hillary’s pre-primary tears. Another good sign for Obama is Dr. Huffmon, a researcher at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, asserted that if Obama can persuade the “undecided black women” to vote for him, he will certainly “win the race.”

A Bump in the Road Will Not Cause Obama to Loose Strength

After Obama won the Iowa Hampshire, many individuals thought he would face a similar victory in New Hampshire. In fact, the night before the New Hampshire primary, Obama had a 9 point lead over Clinton in New Hampshire. However, after the conclusion of the New Hampshire primary, Obama placed in 2nd place, 2% behind Hillary Clinton. One reason for this unexpected loss is that Clinton appealed to a greater number of voters in New Hampshire, especially women. Many of these women abandoned their support of Obama soon before the campaign in New Hampshire ended. Why did they do so? In addition, Obama gave another reason for his loss in New Hampshire, telling NPR, “well, you know, polls are notoriously unreliable, especially when you're seeing big turnouts like this.” This statement could be in response to claims of potential racism (individuals saying they would vote for him in the polls and actually did not) that could have caused Obama to loose in New Hampshire.

After Obama’s 2nd place finish in New Hampshire, Obama continues to campaign strongly and gain monetary support, as well as support from voters, for the upcoming primaries. In his concession speech after New Hampshire, Obama maintained an optimistic view; he kept reiterating the phrase: “Yes we can!”. As for the upcoming primaries, Obama flew off to New Jersey (with a February 5th primary) on Wednesday, a state that borders the claimed Hillary “territory” of New York. Obama asserted to an enthusiastic audience, "There's something in the wind all across America, “You first saw it in Iowa last Thursday and you saw it yesterday in New Hampshire, even though we just came up a little bit short." In addition to Obama’s constant call for change, Obama actually talked about the issues, highlighting why he wants to become president. Obama claimed he would deal with such issues as global warming, higher education costs, and foreign trade agreements. However, did he say specific ways he proposes to do this? In addition, he affirmed he would “end the war in Iraq and bring the troops home by the end of 2009.” In addition, with the January 19th Nevada primary approaching, the Culinary Workers Union of Nevada has endorsed Obama, which will greatly help him in Nevada. This organization, comprised of 60,000 workers in the Las Vegas casinos, “is a tremendously powerful force in state and local politics”. In addition, Obama’s campaign is running a new television ad “Moment” in Nevada, which contains excerpts from his greatly praised Jefferson-Jackson speech in Iowa. However, according to a recent poll, Clinton is leading in Nevada (8% above Obama). In addition, on January 26th, the South Carolina Primary will take place. Obama and Clinton are fiercely fighting for the African-American vote here, which is crucial for them to win the Democratic primary.

Moreover, John Kerry has endorsed Obama. This is a sharp stab at Edwards, who Kerry ran with for President. The implications of this endorsement will be very interesting to find out. However, because Kerry just recently endorsed Obama, we are not yet able to do so. In addition, one must wonder why Kerry has chosen to endorse Obama, and thus abandon Edwards. Did Obama’s win in Iowa and Obama’s great strength in continuing his campaign, even after a surprising loss in New Hampshire impress Kerry?