Obama Takes Second in Nevada

In the Nevada Caucus, Senator Obama received support from 45% of the caucus-goers, while his main rival, Senator Hillary Clinton, had support from 51% of Nevadans. Leading up to the second place finish for Obama, was a controversy involving a union’s endorsement of the Illinois Senator and Past-President Bill Clinton’s claim of inequity in giving a certain group of voters easier access to a caucus. Ironically, after the caucus, it turned out those very people caucusing in Casinos that spurred the disagreement actually backed Hillary. Early last week, a poll that came out showing Obama's continuing efforts to minimize the gap of Senator Clinton’s lead. The Washington Post-ABC News poll had Hillary with 42% of voters and Obama with 37%-interestingly, the website also included the change in approval ratings for the candidates since December. It demonstrated that while Hillary has lost 11%, Obama has gained 14% showing how close the race for the Democratic Nomination has become. Earlier in the week, Obama attacked his opponents for not “hav[ing] anything positive to say about their own record. All they're trying to do is run me down," referencing Clinton’s recent scrutiny of his stances on the Iraq War, race and abortion. During a Las Vegas Debate, Hillary and Obama jointly decided to table the discussion of race. Hillary commented that, “we are all family here in the Democratic Party” and Obama included sometimes “our supporters, our staff, get overzealous. They start saying things that I would not say.” Moreover, informal interviews conducted in Charleston, South Carolina, demonstrate a divided African American constituency —especially women, who are expected to make up nearly 1/3 of the voters in next week’s anticipated primary. Surprisingly, some of the women interviewed expressed opinions opposite of New Hampshire’s positive response to Hillary’s pre-primary tears. Another good sign for Obama is Dr. Huffmon, a researcher at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, asserted that if Obama can persuade the “undecided black women” to vote for him, he will certainly “win the race.”

A Bump in the Road Will Not Cause Obama to Loose Strength

After Obama won the Iowa Hampshire, many individuals thought he would face a similar victory in New Hampshire. In fact, the night before the New Hampshire primary, Obama had a 9 point lead over Clinton in New Hampshire. However, after the conclusion of the New Hampshire primary, Obama placed in 2nd place, 2% behind Hillary Clinton. One reason for this unexpected loss is that Clinton appealed to a greater number of voters in New Hampshire, especially women. Many of these women abandoned their support of Obama soon before the campaign in New Hampshire ended. Why did they do so? In addition, Obama gave another reason for his loss in New Hampshire, telling NPR, “well, you know, polls are notoriously unreliable, especially when you're seeing big turnouts like this.” This statement could be in response to claims of potential racism (individuals saying they would vote for him in the polls and actually did not) that could have caused Obama to loose in New Hampshire.

After Obama’s 2nd place finish in New Hampshire, Obama continues to campaign strongly and gain monetary support, as well as support from voters, for the upcoming primaries. In his concession speech after New Hampshire, Obama maintained an optimistic view; he kept reiterating the phrase: “Yes we can!”. As for the upcoming primaries, Obama flew off to New Jersey (with a February 5th primary) on Wednesday, a state that borders the claimed Hillary “territory” of New York. Obama asserted to an enthusiastic audience, "There's something in the wind all across America, “You first saw it in Iowa last Thursday and you saw it yesterday in New Hampshire, even though we just came up a little bit short." In addition to Obama’s constant call for change, Obama actually talked about the issues, highlighting why he wants to become president. Obama claimed he would deal with such issues as global warming, higher education costs, and foreign trade agreements. However, did he say specific ways he proposes to do this? In addition, he affirmed he would “end the war in Iraq and bring the troops home by the end of 2009.” In addition, with the January 19th Nevada primary approaching, the Culinary Workers Union of Nevada has endorsed Obama, which will greatly help him in Nevada. This organization, comprised of 60,000 workers in the Las Vegas casinos, “is a tremendously powerful force in state and local politics”. In addition, Obama’s campaign is running a new television ad “Moment” in Nevada, which contains excerpts from his greatly praised Jefferson-Jackson speech in Iowa. However, according to a recent poll, Clinton is leading in Nevada (8% above Obama). In addition, on January 26th, the South Carolina Primary will take place. Obama and Clinton are fiercely fighting for the African-American vote here, which is crucial for them to win the Democratic primary.

Moreover, John Kerry has endorsed Obama. This is a sharp stab at Edwards, who Kerry ran with for President. The implications of this endorsement will be very interesting to find out. However, because Kerry just recently endorsed Obama, we are not yet able to do so. In addition, one must wonder why Kerry has chosen to endorse Obama, and thus abandon Edwards. Did Obama’s win in Iowa and Obama’s great strength in continuing his campaign, even after a surprising loss in New Hampshire impress Kerry?

Obama's Victory in Iowa

On the night of the Iowa caucus, Obama received support from approximately 38% percent of Democrats who participated in the event. For the Democratic Party in general, there was a 90% increase in caucus-goers, showing that not only avid advocates of politics voted, but also people who generally avoid the time-consuming process. As for Obama, his message of change successfully motivated the youth--Americans between the ages of 18 and 30 who seldom vote--to come out in masses that rivaled the elderly. According to CNN news, Hillary is now trying to the court young voters in New Hampshire after seeing Obama's tactic prove valuable. After the results of the caucus, Obama delivered one of his characteristic speeches full of hope and enthusiasm and asserted that he hopes the Iowa win exemplifies one of, “the most American of ideas — that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it.” In addition to young voters, Obama also received support from a notable number of independents, a trend that could really help him in New Hampshire since a significant percentage of the state’s residents consider themselves independents. According to some entrance polls in Iowa, Obama actually received more support from older women than Senator Clinton. The outcome of the caucus serves as reinforcement for the Obama campaign to continue with the themes of change, hope and unity. The current front-runner, surmised the situation by commenting, “We won union and non-union, we won men and women, black and white, we gave thousands of people who'd never participated in politics before a reason to believe." After the Iowa caucus, Senator Obama criticized Hillary, a source of major competition, for her efforts to tailor her campaign in the last few days before the New Hampshire primary by saying “We don't need more heat. We need more light.” Interestingly, in an appearance on TV, Edwards conveyed an idea that he considers himself the other “change candidate" and asses that the fight for the democratic nomination will now center on he and Obama—not Obama and Clinton. A new poll presented by the Concord Monitor showed that Obama has come within a statistical error of Hillary’s New Hampshire lead and the article’s author attributed his success not only to Iowa but also to Obama’s visit a few weeks ago where he received a lot of local press. While Obama has begun to kick up the campaigning in New Hampshire, many political analysts have begun to project the ramifications of a second Obama victory on this coming Tuesday.

Continuing the Fierce Fight

            According to a recent poll conducted by Strategic Vision, Obama, the Iowa forerunner, received 30% of the Democratic vote, while Huckabee received 29% of the Republican vote in Iowa. Of course there is a margin of error to consider (4.5%); however, if this poll truly represents the trends of Iowan voters, as well as other states’ voters, Obama’s greater support from his party’s voters could truly help him win the Democratic nomination. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, Obama has begun to appeal to the workers in response to Edwards’ similar yet consistent campaign strategy. Obama may be worried about Edwards’ gaining momentum and winning in Iowa, or Obama may have realized the potential success of this strategy. On the other hand, Obama may be aiming for 2^nd place in Iowa, which would still help him win votes nationwide. In addition, as the Iowa Caucus approaches, Obama is campaigning fiercely and somewhat successfully to capture undecided voters. Obama, selling himself in a somewhat simplistic manner, sheds light on his political skills, as well as his lack of “baggage”, which many of the other Democratic (and Republican) contenders could not claim. In the final days before the caucus, individuals, such as Deval Patrick, the Massachusetts governor, have been helping Obama campaign throughout Iowa.  Patrick, an African-American who lived in the South Side of Chicago, discredited the popular reason voters dismiss Obama: his lack of experience. He compared Obama’s experience (or lack of) to his own before he became governor.

            Furthermore, during the days before the Iowa Caucus, Obama has launced two ads in Iowa. Individuals, including the Hillary Clinton campaign, are criticizing Obama for the misrepresentation of facts in his ad titled “Interest”. This ad claims “experts say Obama’s plan is the best”; however, although the Iowa City Press Citizen claimed this in concurrence with their endorsement of Obama, the newspaper failed to cite any of these “experts” . In addition, the ad states that “ [the plan] guarantees coverage for all Americans” ; however the original quote from St. Paul Pioneer Press states “Obama’s plan guarantees coverage for all Americans but does not require all to have it”. On the other hand, “Edwards and Clinton would require all Americans to have health insurance”. In response to this heightened criticism, Obama defends his healthcare plan claiming “that every single person who wants health insurance is going to be able to get health insurance.”  

On a grave note, many of the presidential contenders, including Obama, have been able to demonstrate their strength or weakness with foreign policy matters because of Bhutto’s “death.”   Obama responded to this crisis asserting “ [Musharraf] has not obeyed the constitution. As long as we are supporting somebody who the Pakistani people themselves believe has subverted democracy, that strengthens the hand of the Islamic militants.” Clinton, and other presidential candidates with greater foreign policy experience, have used this situation to demonstrate the “need” for a president with great experience. Obama took a stab at Clinton by claiming that her authorization of the Iraq War has worsened Pakistan’s problems. Now, we must cling to our seats waiting for the results of the very important Iowa Caucus. If Obama fails to accumulate sufficient support in this caucus and suffers a subsequent downward spiral, it is uncertain whether Obama will run again for president. Michelle, Obama’s wife, states “we're not doing this again”.  For now, on behalf of all the presidential candidates: Happy New Year and let the excitement of the primaries begin!

Obama's consistent increase in support is making Hillary nervous

In a straw poll held last Sunday, Obama received 29% of the vote—however the voter turnout was notably small with only 120 people—leading one to question the number as a legitimate representation of Iowan’s views. In addition to publically endorsing Obama, this week Oprah initiated her campaign tour to support for Obama. She visited Iowa, New Hampshire and in one of her speeches she asserted, “the amount of time you spend in Washington means nothing unless you are accountable for the judgment you made;” in an effort to defend her candidate from what many see as one his major obstacles, inexperience. Using the anniversary of the signing of the United Nation’s, Universal Human Rights, Obama gave a lengthy speech in the senate how Bush’s administration has not only violated these rights, but also the loss of moral standing. He discussed the U.S.’s responsibility to fight for human rights in countries like Sudan, the D.R. Congo and Pakistan and how women are still seen as unequal to men in most of the world. The speech served as an attack of the incompetence of the Bush administration, their combination of illicit and fear-inducing tactics, and concluded with a summary of what the next president (insinuating his run for office) needs to focus on in foreign policy. In New Hampshire one of the 2006-elected members of the house, Carol Shea-Porter, decided to endorse Obama; an important note is that this congresswoman is strongly anti-war and may be able to pull like-minded voters in New Hampshire—a state that initially everyone thought was a give-a-way for Hillary. One easy way to tell that Obama has a lot of support in Iowa is the decreasing support for Hillary evident by her double spending on Iowa TV commercials as well as the relocation of all of Hillary’s highest campaign managers to Iowa. Hillary's panic clearly stems from recognition that there is an actual possibility of Obama winning in Iowa and the momentum he would pick up would a result--influencing not only the vote in New Hampshire, but also nationally.

Giuliani's Daughter, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson, and the Goo Goo Dolls Support Obama

Obama has had much positive press this week. In addition, Obama has made significant promises to the American people. First, this week individuals have claimed that Republican Giuliani’s daughter supports Obama after she joined an Obama Facebook group. Furthermore, Obama has planned a concert fundraiser in Los Angeles, receiving the support of the Goo Goo Dolls, as well as many young Hollywood stars including Jessica Biel and Brian Greenberg. In addition, in Iowa Obama announced his plan for national service. Obama promises that the government will allow for more community and national service opportunities. Obama says as President he will add 250,000 people to the AmeriCorps, as well as double the amount of individuals serving in the Peace Corps; he will implement a Classroom Corps, an Energy Corps, an expand service learning in middle and high schools nationwide. Individuals including Congressmen, a governor, and presidents of various organizations have praised Obama’s plan. Furthermore, this week Obama learned of a list by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid that details 128 nursing homes that have ignored safety and health regulations, as well as caused harm to their residents. Obama has urged the agency to quickly publish the full list of these homes to the public. Lastly, Obama helped introduced the Credit Card Safety Star Act of 2007 to give consumers the knowledge to understand complicated credit card agreements.

However, as Obama is moving up in the polls especially in Iowa, he is receiving much criticism from other Democratic candidates (especially Clinton). For example, at a Democratic debate in Chicago, Obama claimed that if he received sufficient intelligence information, he would call the United States to action against Pakistani terrorists, provided that Pakistan’s leader was ignoring them. Clinton (with the support of Dodd and Biden) attacked Obama for his statement claiming: “I do not believe that people running for president should engage in hypotheticals. “You should not always say everything you think if you're running for president, because it can have consequences across the world." Furthermore, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton calls Obama to shut down his PAC, HOPEFUND. Clinton claims that HOPEFUND has helped Obama with his presidential bid and has dodged or violated FEC rules. Obama responded declaring he has not shut down the PAC because they "simply did not have the ability to get all the money out." In addition, Obama points out that his PAC has contributed to individuals endorsing Clinton. Moreover, Karl Rove, in a letter sent to Obama this week, gave Obama suggestions on how to beat Clinton; however, at the same time Rove criticized Obama as being “weak and ineffectual.”

On a more positive note, Obama’s campaign has begun broadcasting a new television spot demonstrating the importance of change in the Presidency. In addition, as Obama fiercely fights for the Democratic nomination, he has been gaining in the New Hampshire polls. While in October Clinton had 20% more support than Obama, now Clinton only leads by 7%. Another part of his strategy for winning the Democratic nomination is to urge Iowa students to caucus, which he did this past week.

Obama Takes the Lead in Iowa

Senators Clinton and Obama debated the validity of each other’s respective plans to revise the American healthcare system. Obama asserts that Hillary’s program forces citizens who cannot afford the extra expenditure of healthcare coverage to buy it and there would probably be an additional fee for non-compliance. As part of his plan, he claims that leaving the decision to mandate healthcare or not to individual states would save Americans up to $2500. While Obama accused Hillary of “being too secretive,” she claims “he leaves 15million people uncovered…it’s a plan crafted for politics, not people.” The Illinois Senator and the New York Senator both face a challenge in Iowa because the primary election takes a caucus form; according to polls conducted in Iowa 43% of Obama’s supporters have never attending the time-consuming caucuses and 50% of Clinton supporters have never attended a caucus—with such a tight race, Obama must hope that the majority of his supporters actually participate in January 3 caucus. Once again the experience debate flared up between the two major democratic contenders, with Obama questioning how “Senator Clinton is claiming basically the entire eight years of the Clinton presidency as her own, except for the stuff that didn't work out, in which case she says she has nothing to do with it.” Favoring Obama’s campaign, a national poll conducted no longer has Hillary able to beat the major Republican candidates because of the feud and possible split of votes with Obama. In a poll of 750 African Americans this week, Obama had a 8% lower approval rating than Senator Clinton. Some analysts suggest that the polled African Americans may be worried about Obama’s chance of success in a national election based on the limited victories of other African American candidates. In response to the re-claim that Obama lack’s enough foreign affairs experience to serve as President, the senator released two elaborations on his plans for Iran and Iraq. To him, it would be a priority to have the troops out of Iraq by March 2008 and he would use diplomacy to give Iran “a clear choice: stop their disturbing behavior and there will be political and economic incentives; continue doing what they're doing, and we will ratchet up the pressure.” Obama’s campaign staff publicized that Linda Nelson, the President of the Iowa State Education Association, planned to vocalize her support for Obama via a conference call set for last Tuesday coupled with the release of a new commercial scheduled to air in Iowa about Obama’s stance on the importance of education. One of the largest endorsements Obama has received is Oprah’s new “Kill Bill-And-Hill” campaign when she announced her intentions to support Obama on her nationally aired show.
On Friday morning, Bloomberg met with Obama for breakfast and the two allegedly discussed how “there is too much game-playing in Washington and not enough problem-solving [with regard to the] economy, education and homeland security.” It seems that as the race continues, the opinion polls continue show Obama gaining on Hillary's initially large lead. Sunday's poll from the Demoines Register in Iowa projected Obama as the number one Democratic Candidate running for the nomination with 28% and 3% ahead of Senator Clinton.