Obama Campaigning for April and May Primaries

Speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi commented that at the Democratic Convention she hopes the super delegates will give their to which ever candidate has the most delegates because “It's a delegate race and overturn[ing] what's happened in the elections, would be harmful to the Democratic party.” Her comment may be interpreted as beneficial for Obama as he leads with 142 delegates ahead of Hillary. As for the debate on which Michigan and Florida, it seems an absentee revote will not happen meaning the remaining options are a full-fledged primary election or splinting the state’s delegates evenly between the two candidates. The second options seems inconsequential because it will keep the same proportion of Obama’s lead and does not reflect how Florida residents did vote or would have voted if both candidates had been on the ballot. Obama has been trying to avoid the conflation of the reverend at the Chicago South Side Church, which he attends religiously, controversial quotes with his own beliefs. Obama asserted, “This is a church I have been a member of for 20 years. What I have been hearing and had been hearing in church was talk about Jesus and talk about faith and values and serving the poor.'' Obama is now trying to frame Reverend Jeremiah Wright as someone "who is like an uncle or family member who you may strongly object to what they have to say'' to give himself leeway and be excused from association with comments such as “government lied about inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color.” Obama spent Saturday campaigning in Indiana, which has its primary May 6 with 72 delegates to distribute. Interestingly, because of its late date the primary in Indiana has not really made a difference in recent history, but with this unusual campaign and both candidates’ desperation—any delegates are commodities. Obama spoke at a high school and discussed what he thinks are the three most important a decrease in the cost of healthcare, diminished dependence on foreign oil and withdrawing from Iraq.

A Mix of Uncertainty and Hope

As Obama pulled off a great victory in Vermont’s primary (59% vs. 39%), the same night he lost in Rhode Island, Ohio (44% to 54%), and the Texas primary to Democratic rival Hillary Clitnon. Now that Clinton is back in the race, Obama must continue campaigning fiercely to secure the nomination. In addition, while it is uncertain whether Obama or Clinton will receive the Democratic nomination, it is highly probable that Obama will be part of the executive branch in 2009 (either as President or Vice President). This week Clinton has hinted on her desire to appoint Obama as vice president, if she receives the nomination. I believe that Obama would surely accept this position. First, it would be a horrible political move for Obama to not accept Clinton’s offer if she wins the nomination. In addition, this experience as Vice President will help secure a future as President.


Furthermore, after Obama’s disappointing results, Obama assumed a harsher tone. In addition, he began attacking Clinton again, a sharp contrast to their recent debates. For example, Obama asserted, “"One of the things, you know, I hope people start asking is what exactly is this foreign experience that she's claiming." " I have not seen any evidence that she is better equipped to handle a crisis." As the next primaries occur, it will be interesting to watch their relationship. While Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls (46% to 37%), Obama resumed his momentum by winning in Wyoming this weekend.


However, while Obama has 1,567 delegates and Clinton has 1,462, it is impossible for either candidate to receive the nomination before the Democratic Convention. For example, Obama needs 658 delegates in order to receive the necessary 2,025 delegates and become the nominee. However, there are only 600 delegates remaining (this includes Puerto Rico’s caucuses on June 7th). On the other hand, if the Democratic party decides to count the Democratic votes in Michigan and Florida, an individual suggests (with hypothetical delegates in the future primaries/caucuses) that Obama could receive the nomination by May 20th.

Obama Ready to Make History in Ohio and Texas

With an eleven state winning streak, Obama exudes confidence heading into Tuesday’s primaries that will determine whether he is selected as the clear winner of the Democratic nomination or signify the continuation of the battle between he and Senator Clinton. While Hillary Clinton originally had large leads in both states, the national interest in the race and Obama’s momentum has diminished her advantage and polls conducted in Texas show Obama with a 47% to 43% lead. Popular with Hispanic voters, Clinton seems to have lost some ground of women to Obama. On the other hand in Ohio, the most recent polls demonstrate a 1% lead by Hillary with 47% and 46%.
The intensity of the Democratic race is reflected in the ads that have come out in Texas with one clearly favoring Clinton and a response by the Obama campaign within hours. Once again attacking his inexperience and asserting that Obama would be incapable of making difficult decisions, and the Obama campaign claimed it was using a tactic to play up the constituent’s fears . He cleverly countered, “the question is, what kind of judgment will you exercise when you pick up that phone? In fact, we have had a red phone moment. It was the decision to invade Iraq. Senator Clinton gave the wrong answer.” As part of Clinton’s last attempts to thwart Obama’s getting the Democratic Nomination is to attack his conspicuous absence on the Senate’s controversial vote over “Iran and missing in action as chairman of a subcommittee responsible for NATO policy in Afghanistan.” Although voters "think that Mrs. Clinton is a stronger leader and would be a stronger commander in chief…[they would] prefer Mr. Obama as president.” On a roll, Obama currently has 1369 delegates to Clinton’s 1267 and has spent this crucial week campaigning in Texas. He gave a speech in San Marcos, Texas and addressed one of the most recent criticism about his very liberal voting record and how it will be difficult to initiate bipartisanship by commenting “I don't see people at my rallies looking through rose-coloured glasses, we know how hard it will be.”
During Tuesday’s debate, Obama claimed he might use opting out as a bargaining technique “to reopen trade talks" with Mexico and Canada about NAFTA. Following this comment, a rumor asserted that the “senator’s campaign privately assured the Canadian government the candidate was not serious in his criticisms of NAFTA.” The Obama campaign claimed to have no ties to the rumor and that is probably true because it would be a little early to assuage the Canadian’ government’s fears of changing NAFTA—even if he is most likely going to be the next President—because I doubt that our northern neighbor will serve as one of the key constituents in the upcoming general election. If Obama can pull out two big wins this week, he will clench the Democratic Nomination making history as both an underdog and the first African American ever nominated by a major party to be the President of the United States.