Continuing the Fierce Fight

            According to a recent poll conducted by Strategic Vision, Obama, the Iowa forerunner, received 30% of the Democratic vote, while Huckabee received 29% of the Republican vote in Iowa. Of course there is a margin of error to consider (4.5%); however, if this poll truly represents the trends of Iowan voters, as well as other states’ voters, Obama’s greater support from his party’s voters could truly help him win the Democratic nomination. As the Iowa Caucus approaches, Obama has begun to appeal to the workers in response to Edwards’ similar yet consistent campaign strategy. Obama may be worried about Edwards’ gaining momentum and winning in Iowa, or Obama may have realized the potential success of this strategy. On the other hand, Obama may be aiming for 2^nd place in Iowa, which would still help him win votes nationwide. In addition, as the Iowa Caucus approaches, Obama is campaigning fiercely and somewhat successfully to capture undecided voters. Obama, selling himself in a somewhat simplistic manner, sheds light on his political skills, as well as his lack of “baggage”, which many of the other Democratic (and Republican) contenders could not claim. In the final days before the caucus, individuals, such as Deval Patrick, the Massachusetts governor, have been helping Obama campaign throughout Iowa.  Patrick, an African-American who lived in the South Side of Chicago, discredited the popular reason voters dismiss Obama: his lack of experience. He compared Obama’s experience (or lack of) to his own before he became governor.

            Furthermore, during the days before the Iowa Caucus, Obama has launced two ads in Iowa. Individuals, including the Hillary Clinton campaign, are criticizing Obama for the misrepresentation of facts in his ad titled “Interest”. This ad claims “experts say Obama’s plan is the best”; however, although the Iowa City Press Citizen claimed this in concurrence with their endorsement of Obama, the newspaper failed to cite any of these “experts” . In addition, the ad states that “ [the plan] guarantees coverage for all Americans” ; however the original quote from St. Paul Pioneer Press states “Obama’s plan guarantees coverage for all Americans but does not require all to have it”. On the other hand, “Edwards and Clinton would require all Americans to have health insurance”. In response to this heightened criticism, Obama defends his healthcare plan claiming “that every single person who wants health insurance is going to be able to get health insurance.”  

On a grave note, many of the presidential contenders, including Obama, have been able to demonstrate their strength or weakness with foreign policy matters because of Bhutto’s “death.”   Obama responded to this crisis asserting “ [Musharraf] has not obeyed the constitution. As long as we are supporting somebody who the Pakistani people themselves believe has subverted democracy, that strengthens the hand of the Islamic militants.” Clinton, and other presidential candidates with greater foreign policy experience, have used this situation to demonstrate the “need” for a president with great experience. Obama took a stab at Clinton by claiming that her authorization of the Iraq War has worsened Pakistan’s problems. Now, we must cling to our seats waiting for the results of the very important Iowa Caucus. If Obama fails to accumulate sufficient support in this caucus and suffers a subsequent downward spiral, it is uncertain whether Obama will run again for president. Michelle, Obama’s wife, states “we're not doing this again”.  For now, on behalf of all the presidential candidates: Happy New Year and let the excitement of the primaries begin!

Obama's consistent increase in support is making Hillary nervous

In a straw poll held last Sunday, Obama received 29% of the vote—however the voter turnout was notably small with only 120 people—leading one to question the number as a legitimate representation of Iowan’s views. In addition to publically endorsing Obama, this week Oprah initiated her campaign tour to support for Obama. She visited Iowa, New Hampshire and in one of her speeches she asserted, “the amount of time you spend in Washington means nothing unless you are accountable for the judgment you made;” in an effort to defend her candidate from what many see as one his major obstacles, inexperience. Using the anniversary of the signing of the United Nation’s, Universal Human Rights, Obama gave a lengthy speech in the senate how Bush’s administration has not only violated these rights, but also the loss of moral standing. He discussed the U.S.’s responsibility to fight for human rights in countries like Sudan, the D.R. Congo and Pakistan and how women are still seen as unequal to men in most of the world. The speech served as an attack of the incompetence of the Bush administration, their combination of illicit and fear-inducing tactics, and concluded with a summary of what the next president (insinuating his run for office) needs to focus on in foreign policy. In New Hampshire one of the 2006-elected members of the house, Carol Shea-Porter, decided to endorse Obama; an important note is that this congresswoman is strongly anti-war and may be able to pull like-minded voters in New Hampshire—a state that initially everyone thought was a give-a-way for Hillary. One easy way to tell that Obama has a lot of support in Iowa is the decreasing support for Hillary evident by her double spending on Iowa TV commercials as well as the relocation of all of Hillary’s highest campaign managers to Iowa. Hillary's panic clearly stems from recognition that there is an actual possibility of Obama winning in Iowa and the momentum he would pick up would a result--influencing not only the vote in New Hampshire, but also nationally.

Giuliani's Daughter, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson, and the Goo Goo Dolls Support Obama

Obama has had much positive press this week. In addition, Obama has made significant promises to the American people. First, this week individuals have claimed that Republican Giuliani’s daughter supports Obama after she joined an Obama Facebook group. Furthermore, Obama has planned a concert fundraiser in Los Angeles, receiving the support of the Goo Goo Dolls, as well as many young Hollywood stars including Jessica Biel and Brian Greenberg. In addition, in Iowa Obama announced his plan for national service. Obama promises that the government will allow for more community and national service opportunities. Obama says as President he will add 250,000 people to the AmeriCorps, as well as double the amount of individuals serving in the Peace Corps; he will implement a Classroom Corps, an Energy Corps, an expand service learning in middle and high schools nationwide. Individuals including Congressmen, a governor, and presidents of various organizations have praised Obama’s plan. Furthermore, this week Obama learned of a list by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid that details 128 nursing homes that have ignored safety and health regulations, as well as caused harm to their residents. Obama has urged the agency to quickly publish the full list of these homes to the public. Lastly, Obama helped introduced the Credit Card Safety Star Act of 2007 to give consumers the knowledge to understand complicated credit card agreements.

However, as Obama is moving up in the polls especially in Iowa, he is receiving much criticism from other Democratic candidates (especially Clinton). For example, at a Democratic debate in Chicago, Obama claimed that if he received sufficient intelligence information, he would call the United States to action against Pakistani terrorists, provided that Pakistan’s leader was ignoring them. Clinton (with the support of Dodd and Biden) attacked Obama for his statement claiming: “I do not believe that people running for president should engage in hypotheticals. “You should not always say everything you think if you're running for president, because it can have consequences across the world." Furthermore, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton calls Obama to shut down his PAC, HOPEFUND. Clinton claims that HOPEFUND has helped Obama with his presidential bid and has dodged or violated FEC rules. Obama responded declaring he has not shut down the PAC because they "simply did not have the ability to get all the money out." In addition, Obama points out that his PAC has contributed to individuals endorsing Clinton. Moreover, Karl Rove, in a letter sent to Obama this week, gave Obama suggestions on how to beat Clinton; however, at the same time Rove criticized Obama as being “weak and ineffectual.”

On a more positive note, Obama’s campaign has begun broadcasting a new television spot demonstrating the importance of change in the Presidency. In addition, as Obama fiercely fights for the Democratic nomination, he has been gaining in the New Hampshire polls. While in October Clinton had 20% more support than Obama, now Clinton only leads by 7%. Another part of his strategy for winning the Democratic nomination is to urge Iowa students to caucus, which he did this past week.

Obama Takes the Lead in Iowa

Senators Clinton and Obama debated the validity of each other’s respective plans to revise the American healthcare system. Obama asserts that Hillary’s program forces citizens who cannot afford the extra expenditure of healthcare coverage to buy it and there would probably be an additional fee for non-compliance. As part of his plan, he claims that leaving the decision to mandate healthcare or not to individual states would save Americans up to $2500. While Obama accused Hillary of “being too secretive,” she claims “he leaves 15million people uncovered…it’s a plan crafted for politics, not people.” The Illinois Senator and the New York Senator both face a challenge in Iowa because the primary election takes a caucus form; according to polls conducted in Iowa 43% of Obama’s supporters have never attending the time-consuming caucuses and 50% of Clinton supporters have never attended a caucus—with such a tight race, Obama must hope that the majority of his supporters actually participate in January 3 caucus. Once again the experience debate flared up between the two major democratic contenders, with Obama questioning how “Senator Clinton is claiming basically the entire eight years of the Clinton presidency as her own, except for the stuff that didn't work out, in which case she says she has nothing to do with it.” Favoring Obama’s campaign, a national poll conducted no longer has Hillary able to beat the major Republican candidates because of the feud and possible split of votes with Obama. In a poll of 750 African Americans this week, Obama had a 8% lower approval rating than Senator Clinton. Some analysts suggest that the polled African Americans may be worried about Obama’s chance of success in a national election based on the limited victories of other African American candidates. In response to the re-claim that Obama lack’s enough foreign affairs experience to serve as President, the senator released two elaborations on his plans for Iran and Iraq. To him, it would be a priority to have the troops out of Iraq by March 2008 and he would use diplomacy to give Iran “a clear choice: stop their disturbing behavior and there will be political and economic incentives; continue doing what they're doing, and we will ratchet up the pressure.” Obama’s campaign staff publicized that Linda Nelson, the President of the Iowa State Education Association, planned to vocalize her support for Obama via a conference call set for last Tuesday coupled with the release of a new commercial scheduled to air in Iowa about Obama’s stance on the importance of education. One of the largest endorsements Obama has received is Oprah’s new “Kill Bill-And-Hill” campaign when she announced her intentions to support Obama on her nationally aired show.
On Friday morning, Bloomberg met with Obama for breakfast and the two allegedly discussed how “there is too much game-playing in Washington and not enough problem-solving [with regard to the] economy, education and homeland security.” It seems that as the race continues, the opinion polls continue show Obama gaining on Hillary's initially large lead. Sunday's poll from the Demoines Register in Iowa projected Obama as the number one Democratic Candidate running for the nomination with 28% and 3% ahead of Senator Clinton.

A Fierce Fight for the Democratic Nomination

Shortly after delivering perhaps the best speech of the Democratic candidates at the Iowa Jefferson Jackson Dinner, a Washington Post/ABC News Poll showed Obama leading in Iowa with 30% of the voters compared to Clinton with 26% and Edwards with 22%. Because of the margin of error, Obama and Clinton are basically tied in Iowa. In addition, Obama is tied with Hilary for Democratic women’s votes in Iowa and leads by 50% (over Clinton) as the most responsible and honest candidate. In addition, in New Hampshire, another important primary, while Clinton’s voter percentage has decreased by 7% to 36%, Obama has maintained his second place standing loosing by 14% (vs. 23% in September). However, nationally Hillary leads Obama by 23%. Thus, we must ponder, can Obama actually win the Iowa primary, as well as those necessary to win the Democratic nomination over Hillary?

As Clinton and Obama diminish their gaps as the leaders of the Democratic Party nomination, their personal attacks and criticism between one another continue. As Clinton continues to attack Obama’s resume and political experience (or lack there of, as she and others claim) Obama criticizes Clinton’s portrayal of her own experience: “my understanding is she wasn’t treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. I don’t know exactly what experience she’s claiming.” On the other hand, Clinton undermines Obama’s assertion of his foreign experience. She finds it ridiculous that Obama’s experience living abroad when he was 10 years old would help him face present foreign policy issues as President. However, others, including Senator Biden, fellow Democrat and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, believes “[Obama’s living abroad] is his strongest [foreign policy] credential.” Also, Obama has attacked Clinton “[who] was a cheerleader for NAFTA for more than a decade;” then as soon as she announced her run for Presidency, abandoned this support. Obama condemns Clinton’s “flip-flopping” (Clinton also originally voted for the War in Iraq); Obama asserts, "I realize that changing your position to suit the politics of the moment might be smart campaign tactics but isn't the kind of strong, principled leadership America needs right now.” In addition, this week, Obama condemned Clinton and Edward’s plans for mandating universal health coverage without details on pricing and enforcement. Other candidates, including those on the Republican side, have continued their criticisms. Romney points out that if Obama is President, Obama will leave Iraq and the country will become a “safe-haven” for Al-Qaeda. On an interesting note, the chief Republican Presidential candidate Giuliani ironically, praised Obama for his honesty when telling New Hampshire students that he used drugs in high school. Lastly, Novak’s claim that Clinton’s campaign possessed “scandalous information” about Obama was denied by her administration.

This week Obama proposed many great plans to be implemented if he becomes President. Obama announced that he will improve community colleges, as well as make these schools free for the majority of Americans through an American Opportunity Tax Credit. Obama desires to make other colleges more attainable to Americans by facilitating the application process and increasing the amount giving for financial aid. In addition, Obama proposed a $18 billion education plan to fix Bush’s “No Child Left Behind,” through supporting universal pre-K programs and increasing teacher mentoring programs for example. Obama criticized Senators Clinton and Edwards for not allotting enough funds to the No Child Left Behind Act and not sufficiently protecting or helping students. Professors at Berkeley, Stanford, and Nobel Laureates for Economics have praised Obama’s education plan. Lastly, Obama criticized Bush for claiming that Musharraf “hasn’t crossed the line” and “truly believes in democracy.” Obama believes that a portion of our aid to Pakistan should only be given if Musharraf holds free and just elections and abandons his country’s “state of emergency”. In addition, Obama blames Cheney (ironically his relative) for America’s oil problems.

Hillary's Hits Help Obama

This week Obama moved on the offensive against the Democratic front runner, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. Thursday, during the Democratic debate in Las Vegas, Nevada, Senator Obama accused Senator Clinton of neglecting to answer concretely her opinions on foreign policy, healthcare and Iraq. Earlier in the week at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa, one third of those in attendance were said to be Obama supporters. One of Hillary’s team members, Mark Penn, affronted that Obama’s followers “look[ed] like Facebook…only a few of their people look like they could vote in any state” fueling a rapid response from the voting eligible youth ready to cast their ballots for Obama. If Obama can motivate the young Americans to flock to the polls, he will have access to a large percentage of votes usually untapped by any candidate. After Obama’s and the medias attacks on Hillary in the past few weeks, her lead in a CNN national survey dropped from 30% to only 19%. These numbers bode well for Obama, who seems to be gaining ground from second place. However, Barack Obama only had the support of 22%, while Hillary Clinton had support of the 37% of the citizens polled in New Hampshire—a very influential state due to vast media coverage and momentum by winning candidates in the primary season. Another poll demonstrated that Barack Obama had more support than four major Republican party contenders in Missouri with 46% of the vote. Interestingly, there have been “rumors about rumors” claiming that Clinton has found some damaging material about Obama but “prudent[ly]… decided not to use it.”

Although not present for the recent senatorial vote on how to proceed with Iran, Obama reassures his possible constituents that he does not support military action. Also, the Presidential candidate released his new plan for technology as a means of differentiating himself from the other politicians fighting for the Democratic nomination. He proposed creating a government website where anyone could watch the House of Representatives and the Senate as well as setting up a webpage for comments from the American public on pending legislation. Additionally, he assured that new computer software would come equipped with parental controls so that the government would not need to censor the content of the internet. Senator Obama introduced another new policy this week that promised a path to citizenship for “all immigrants who earn their college degrees in the United States.” Based on his multiple announcements of more viewpoint coupled with attacks on Hillary and her dip in popularity, Obama continues to gain support as the race heads into the holidays.